Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Big Ten Basketball Preview


Well as we bring in the New Year, conference play is upon us in college basketball as Big Ten play starts this week.

So who is going to win the Big Ten conference in 2009?

That question is harder than it appears especially since the start of the season. Most experts liked Purdue and Michigan St to win the Big Ten with Wisconsin making a run at them as well.

Certainly the experts were right about those teams contending for the title, but they just forgot to mention Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio St, and Illinois as all having a chance to reign at the top at the end of conference play. Michigan and Minnesota have both really improved from last season. As a result both teams are currently ranked in the Top 25 in both the AP and ESPN/USA Today polls.

This is how I see things stack up when it’s all said in done in the Big Ten conference

1. Michigan St.
2. Purdue
3. Michigan
4. Minnesota
5. Wisconsin
6. Ohio St.
7. Illinois
8. Penn St.
9. Northwestern
10. Iowa
11. Indiana

It’s never easy to predict the standings for a conference where six to seven teams could end up winning the conference. The Big Ten this year has surprised many experts, ranking 2nd currently in the RPI only trailing the ACC.

I feel the Big Ten is the 3rd best conference in college basketball this year with the possibility of seven teams punching their ticket to the NCAA Tournament come March.

Michigan St and Purdue bring back the most experienced teams and that is why I ultimately choose them to finish in the top spots. Michigan St. clearly has the most talent of any team in the Big Ten with the ability to have a Final Four type run come March. As for Purdue they are solid in every aspect of the game and are almost a lock for the sweet 16 come tournament time.

As for the rest of the pack, I see team finishing from three to seven in the conference as being very close in overall talent and ability. I have Michigan and Minnesota finishing 3rd and 4th respectively. This may surprise some but both teams have excellent coaches and are off to a great start. The big question for both teams will be to see how they handle adversity within conference after some tough losses. Then at five through seven I like Wisconsin, Ohio St. and Illinois. I feel all these teams are solid but just don’t scare you when it comes to scoring the basketball. All seven teams I just mentioned have the opportunity in my mind to make the NCAA Tournament and it’s been a long time since the Big Ten has had seven teams go so that would be a huge lift for a conference that usually takes a lot of blows by the experts.

Finishing 8th through 11th in my mind will be Penn St, Northwestern, Iowa, and lastly Indiana. Penn St has some nice pieces but I don’t see them protecting their home court like the top seven teams and they just don’t have the same type of talent that the other teams have. Northwestern always will surprise some teams with their unorthodox style of the Princeton offense, but can they defeat teams on the road? As for Iowa they have a lot of youth and are just too young of a team to contend for much of anything this year in the Big Ten. Then you have Indiana who has an extremely depleted roster with a lot of MAC level talent getting major minutes. Thank you Kelvin Sampson, he has set the Hoosiers back a good 3 years with all of his past violations.

Let’s breakdown each team looking at their seasons so far and looking ahead as Big Ten conference play starts.

1. Michigan St. (ranked No. 10 in AP and No 15 in ESPN/USA Today Polls) Results-The Spartans are 9-2 on the season with a big win over then No. 5 Texas on Dec. 20 at a neutral court (although the game was played in Houston). The Spartans do not have any other resume wins right now, but they have done an important thing and that is avoiding the bad loss. Spartans only losses came to Maryland in the Old Spice Classic down in Orlando back on Nov. 27 80-62 and to North Carolina in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge at Ford Field on Dec. 3 98-63. Now maybe being blowout by UNC constitutes as a bad loss, but the ability to rebound from that game and avoid the hangover effect to win their last five has been huge. Question marks- MSU will have to continue to get better as the season wears on, they just have to play to their overall abilities. Right now I really like the play of Durrell Summers, Kalin Lucas, and Goran Suton. I feel that Raymar Morgan has to assert himself more on the offensive end and they have to continue getting good production from Marquise Gray, Delvon Roe, Travis Walton, and Chris Allen. MSU is the deepest team in the Big Ten with the ability to go 12 to 13 deep. Can Tom Izzo get everything out of his players and make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament? First game- MSU starts out playing at the undefeated Minnesota Golden Gophers on Wednesday at 12:00 p.m on the Big Ten Network.

2. Purdue (No. 9 in the AP and No. 11 in the ESPN/USA Today Polls) Results- Purdue stands at 11-2 on the season. Matt Painter has done a tremendous job of turning this program around from Gen Keady’s last few years. He has recruited talent and has done an excellent job of coaching over his tenure with the Boilermakers. Purdue has two nice resume wins over Boston College and a win over then No. 20 Davidson a week back. Much like the Spartans, the Boilermakers have avoided the bad loss even though some may consider getting blown out on your home court to No. 4 Duke as a loss that will affect their seeding come March. Purdue’s other loss came at the hands of the Oklahoma Sooners in the NIT Season Tipoff Championship back on Nov. 28. The Boilers are led by Robbie Hummel and E’Twaun Moore both averaging 14 plus points. Question marks- Can JaJuan Johnson continue to get better as the season wears on. Big guy are key when it comes to Big Ten play and that won’t change with Johnson. If Nemanja Calasan and Marcus Green can play more consistently up front the Boilers should be in good shape. Can the boilers continue to get good play from Keaton Grant, Lewis Jackson, and Chris Kramer? Can the Boilers hold serve at home and come up with some wins on the road? First game- You don’t have to wait long to see the Boilers in action as they host Illinois tonight at 7:00 on ESPN2.

3. Michigan (No. 23 in the AP and No. 24 in the ESPN/USA Today Polls) Results-Michigan is currently 10-2 on the season. Last night’s victory over North Carolina Central marked Michigan’s 10th win of the season, which in turn matched last season’s win total. With that said the Wolverines have surprised many so far in this young season. The big surprises have been the ability for the Wolverines to show up during big games. They did just that by defeating both UCLA and Duke early on in the season. Both teams were ranked No. 4 when they took on the Wolverines. The thing that impressed me the most was the fact they defeated Duke after losing to them earlier on in the season. You ask what? Yes that is correct Michigan has played Duke twice. They matched up with them in the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic on Nov. 21 and lost 71-56. Then two weeks later defeated Duke at Crisler Arena 81-73. Much like Purdue and MSU, the Wolverines have avoided the bad loss so far this season. Michigan other loss came in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge when they traveled on the road to play Maryland losing 75-70. The play of Manny Harris and Deshawn Sims has been phenomenal so far this season. Harris is nearly averaging 20 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists per game. As or Sims he may be the most improved player and has really developed a low post game averaging 17 points and 9 rebounds per game. Question marks- Can Michigan first off sustain this early season success during the Big Ten schedule? They still are a relatively inexperienced team and a team that has yet to face adversity during this season. Can Michigan find that 3rd scorer, Laval Lucas-Perry is looking like he could be the guy or will it be Zach Novak or Stu Douglass. Can Kalvin Grady continue to play as well as he is right now? Does Michigan have enough big men to play in the Big Ten? Freshman Ben Cronin had to be red shirted due to a hip injury he sustained before the season. What kind of effect will the live and die by the three have within the Big Ten conference? First game- Michigan hosts Wisconsin on Wednesday at 2:00 on ESPN 2.

4. Minnesota (No. 21 in the AP and No. 21 in the ESPN/USA Today Polls) Results- Much like Michigan, Minnesota has improved tremendously from last season. Minnesota is actually believe it or not the only remaining undefeated team in the Big Ten conference at 12-0 on the season. Tubby Smith has done an excellent job in turning around this Minnestoa program. Minnesota’s marquee victory came against No. 9 Louisville back on Dec. 20 by the score of 70-64 on a neutral court. That win shocked a lot of people and definitely made people take notice of the Golden Gophers. But besides that Minnesota has played a soft schedule and I don’t think we truly know how good of a team they are yet. They just haven’t been tested, their next best win is against Virginia who is in the bottom third of the ACC. One thing that stayed the same as far from last year is Lawrence Westbrook, he impressed a lot of people last year and continues to do so this year. Don’t sleep on Damian Johnson, Blake Hoffarber, and Al Nolen. I feel Al Nolen is the X-factor on the team and if he continues to play well the Golden Gophers are going to be a tough out. Question marks- How will Minnesota do when they face adversity? This question has to be raised since it has been a while since the Golden Gophers have had a chance to contend for a Big Ten Championship? How will frontcourt players like Colton Iverson and Ralph Sampson III play in the tough Big Ten conference? Can role players like Travis Busch, Devoe Joseph, and Jamal Abu-Shamala make clutch shots when they are needed to be called on? First game-Minnesota will get tested on Wednesday as they play MSU at 12:00 on the Big Ten Network.

5. Wisconsin Results- The Badgers stand at 9-3 overall right now. I feel most would say Wisconsin has had a disappointing season thus far with their best win coming against Virginia Tech in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge back on Dec. 1. It’s not like the Badgers haven’t had a chance to win some marquee games, they have just come up short in them. They have lost to Connecticut 76-57, Marquette 61-58, and most recently to Texas 64-59. Texas and Marquette were winnable games but Wisconsin just failed to execute down the stretch. With all that said, Wisconsin will be a tough team to beat in the Big Ten like almost every year. Bo Ryan is one of the best coaches in America and he always gets the most out of his players. There is also no team tougher to beat at home in the Big Ten than the Badgers. They are led by guard Travon Hughes and Marcus Landry. Both are experienced players that bring great leadership to a fairly young Badger team. After Hughes and Landry the Badgers have Joe Krabbenhoft, Jason Bohannon, and Jon Leuer. After that though, Wisconsin has trouble finding scoring off the bench. Question marks- Will the lack of depth effect this team during Big Ten conference play? Can Wisconsin find enough scoring late in games to pull off victories against Top 25 teams? Without guys like Michael Flowers or Brian Butch will the Badgers have consistent play from their leaders on the team? First game- Wisconsin gets their shot at a marquee win on Wednesday at 2:00 on ESPN 2 as they travel to Ann Arbor to play the Wolverines.

6. Ohio St. (No. 24 in the AP and No. 23 in the ESPN/USA Today Polls) Results- Ohio St. is 9-1 on the season. The Buckeyes suffered their first loss at home against West Virginia by getting blown out 76-48. This was an alarming score to see since the Buckeyes came into this game undefeated and looking to stay that way heading into the Big Ten season. Ohio St. has had big resume wins over No. 22 Miami (Fl.), No. 7 Notre Dame in early December and most recently Butler. They were fortunate to get the Miami victory because Hurricanes star Jack McClinton got thrown out of the game against Ohio St. due to a bonehead play. But the Buckeyes certainly aren’t giving back any wins, recently though Ohio St. has learned they will be without two players in their rotation. Junior David Lighty has been nearly two weeks due to an injury and is expected to be out for at least the next month. Also freshman PG Anthony Crater just decided to transfer due to a lack of playing time. With these effects players like Jon Diebler, Jeremie Simmons, William Buford, B.J. Mullens, and Dallas Lauderdale must step up to help take the scoring load off star Evan Turner. Ohio St. start Turner is averaging 16 points per game. Question marks- Will Ohio St. have enough to overcome the loss of Lighty and Crater? Can B.J. Mullens pick up his game, as he has not lived up to his big expectations? Can the Buckeyes rebound from some adversity they are facing right now after coming off their first loss of the season? Will the lack of depth hurt the Buckeyes as the Big Ten season wears on? First game- Ohio St look to get back on track as they take on Iowa at home at 4:00 on the Big Ten Network Wednesday.

7. Illinois- Results- The Fighting Illini currently stand at 11-1 overall on the season. The Illini have yet to win a marquee game but they do have solid wins against Vanderbilt, Gerogia, and Missouri all teams that could potentially be bubble teams come March. Back on Dec 2. Illinois nearly came up with an important win at home against Clemson, but came up just short 76-74. Illinois has avoided the bad loss and with that said they have an opportunity to punch their ticket into the NCAA Tournament with a good Big Ten conference season. Illinois has a relatively young and inexperienced team that is certain to face some struggles in the tough Big Ten schedule in 2009. The Fighting Illini is led by Trent Meacham, Demetri McCamey, and Mike Davis. Also expect to see contributions from Mike Tisdale, Chester Frazier, Calvin Brock, Dominique Keller, and Alex Legion. The sophomore transfer Alex Legion from Detroit, Mich. is expected to make a big impact and is another threat from beyond the arc. Legion originally committed to Michigan, then decommitted, then signed a letter of intent to go to the University of Kentucky, then mid-season last year decided to transfer to Champaign. Question marks- How will lack of frontcourt depth and experience effect the Illini during the Big Ten schedule? How will Legion be used in the Illini lineup and can he make a big impact? Can Mike Davis sustain his early season success? First game- Illinois plays at Purdue tonight at 7:00 on ESPN2.

8. Penn St. - Results- The Nittany Lions are 11-2 on this young season. That is an impressive record for a Penn St. team that has struggled mightily over the years. But I feel it is misleading since the Nittany Lions have had an extremely soft schedule. Their two losses came against Temple and Rhode Island, two teams that are probably looking at the NIT Tournament come March. Their best win came against Georgia Tech on the road on Dec. 3 in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Although Georgia Tech will be in the lower third of the ACC conference this year and are without two of their top leading scorers from last season due to injury/suspension. Leading Penn St. in scoring is Talor Battle with 19 points per game and he is shooting a blistering 43% from the beyond the arc. This makes him one of the best shooters in the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions also have Jamelle Cornley and Stanley Pringle who combine for 29 points per game. Question marks- Can Penn St protect their home court during the Big Ten season? Can Penn St. finally climb the latter of the Big Ten standings during 2009? Will this be Ed Dechellis’ last season if they don’t? Can Penn St. win on the road? Can Penn St. find enough production off their bench? First game- Penn St. opens up the Big Ten season at home Wednesday at 12:00 against Northwestern on ESPN2.

9. Northwestern Results- The Wildcats are 9-2 overall on the season right now. Much like Penn St. this record is misleading because Bill Carmody’s group has played a relatively easy schedule. There biggest win is over Florida St. on the road during the ACC/Big Ten challenge. Don’t get me wrong it was a good win against a bubble team on the road. They just don’t have enough of these types of wins. They came up just short against Butler losing 57-53 back on Nov. 26. and to Stanford 65-59 a week ago out in California. If they win both of those games my feelings about the Wildcats heading into the Big Ten season would be different. Don’t get me wrong if you don’t come to play against Northwestern or Penn St. on a given night you will get beat especially this year since both teams are no slouches. The Wildcats are led by Kevin Coble and Craig Moore who both average over 13 points per game. Michael Thompson and John Shurna both are significant contributors for the Wildcats as well. Question marks- Can Northwestern get enough scoring off their bench? Can Coble and Moore raise their level of play when they take on the top teams in the Big Ten this season? Can Northwestern protect their home court and find some wins on the road? First game- Northwestern travels to Penn St. to play Wednesday at 12:00 on ESPN2.

10. Iowa Results- The Hawkeyes stand at 10-3 entering the Big Ten season. Iowa’s three losses have come at the hand of West Virginia, Boston College, and Drake. Their biggest was against Kansas St. back on Nov. 29. Iowa is a very young team under second year coach Todd Lickliter and that will show this year in the Big Ten. Although they are young, they do have some talent and will be tough to beat at home especially if you don’t come to play. The talent starts with freshman Anthony Tucker who leads the team in scoring with 13 a game. Matt Gatens, Jeff Peterson, Jake Kelley, Cyrus Tate, and Jermain Davis will all make contributions to the Hawkeyes this season during Big Ten play. Question marks- Can they play spoiler for other teams within the Big Ten? How much will they improve under Coach Lickliter during his second season? Can they protect home court? Can they find a scoring presence down low? First game- The Hawkeye open up Big Ten play by traveling to Columbus to play the Buckeyes at 4:00 on the Big Ten Network.

11. Indiana Results- Currently the Hoosiers are the only team in the Big Ten under .500 with a 5-7 record overall. The Hoosiers have had a tough season to say the least under first year ehad coach Tom Crean. Everybody knew it was going to be a tough year because they only returned one player from last year’s team in Kyle Taber. But I don’t know if anything prepares you to just exactly how tough. They defeated Chaminade (Division II opponent) in the seventh place game of the Maui Invitational by two points. If that doesn’t tell you how tough it is how about losing to Northeastern and Lipscomb on your home court this past week. They also have been blown out by Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Gonzaga, Kentucky, and Saint Joseph’s. The Hoosiers are led in scoring by Devan Dumes and Tom Pritchard. Good news for Hoosier fans two very good recruiting classes are on their way in 2009 and 2010, for Tom Crean they can’t come soon enough. Question marks- Can the Indiana Hoosiers play spoiler in the Big Ten conference to some of the top teams? Can the Hoosiers finish 10th place or higher in the Big Ten standings, everybody is predicting them to finish dead last? Can the Hoosiers win 10 games this season? First game- The Hoosiers do not start their Big Ten season until Saturday as they travel to play Iowa at 4:35 on the Big Ten Network.

Like any year in the Big Ten conference the thing that will separate the good from the great teams will be the ability to take care of home court and find a way to get victories on the road. Any win on the road is a plus, but in order tow in the Big Ten conference this year contending teams will have to beat teams 8-11 (Penn St, Northwestern, Iowa, and Indiana). The teams that don’t come up with the victories will be on the outside looking in as far as the Big Ten Championship is concerned. What it will take to get you in the NCAA Tournament? It’s going to take 9-9 in my mind to get you in the breath and possibly may take 10-8 to get in the tournament. Overall a lot will depend on the types of wins these teams get and avoiding the bad loss.

I can’t wait to see the Big Ten in action. There is a tremendous amount of talent in the Big Ten and I hope the rest of the country takes notice. The Big Ten has the opportunity to have 6 to 7 teams compete in the NCAA Tournament. Catch the Big Ten in action all season long on the Big Ten Network, CBS, and the ESPN family of networks.




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